[Poetic] The War in Fountain - Fish or Cut Bait
The War in Fountain - Fish or Cut Bait
What Test has going in its favour with this particular narrative is that Goonswarm has not fought a war with this much resistance since Band of Brothers. The CFC, as a relatively new coalition, has never fought a war where the enemy has put up a fight.
The Test storyline is that, as long as they can inflict major losses upon the CFC for every centimetre of territory they wish to take, their resolve will eventually falter.
Is there a possibility that the CFC will at some point cut bait? I suppose it is a possibility. Anything, after all, is possible. Is it likely? Certainly not in the short-term. I suppose, if come August, the CFC is still fighting out of B-DBYQ in Cloud Ring, then it might be something CFC leadership considers.
It really depends on pride.
I certainly don't see the CFC staging out of Cloud Ring come August, but in the unlikely case that scenario comes to pass, what might the CFC do?
In terms of reputation, it seems to me that the CFC (and Goonswarm in particular) has a lot riding on this conflict. They've really faced no opposition since Band of Brothers. Every territorial expansion since then has been Goonswarm glaring at an enemy, and that enemy immediately backing down. Goonswarm has not been challenged in a good long while. Although a milestone in EVE Online history, their eventual defeat of Band of Brothers was bloodless, the result of a fortuitous betrayal from within BoB's leadership. (Yes, everything leading up to that defeat was bloody as hell.)
If Goonswarm Financial determined that the cost of war outweighed the value of the desired moons, would The Mittani choose to retreat? Would he value financial realities over pride and hubris? A retreat from Fountain would certainly be disastrous, both to the CFC's reputation externally and their morale internally. Does The Mittani care what the rest of New Eden thinks of Goonswarm and the CFC? That's the billion ISK question. How would such a retreat embolden every other organization in EVE? Would the CFC suddenly find itself fighting for its very existence, defending its own territory on every front?
There are buckets and buckets full of players and organizations that genuinely get excited over that prospect. Currently, it's wishful thinking.
As a thought exercise, those are interesting questions. In reality, though, I don't see the CFC having to face them. Every great power eventually falls, but the CFC is not a crumbling empire. If I were to draw an analogy with ancient Rome, the CFC is in its Trajan period. This war with Test Alliance is Trajan's war with the Parthian Empire.
Certainly this war has not gone to plan. Four weeks in and we're still mired at our bridgehead. We've taken some big losses (two CSAAs, thirty dreadnoughts, many other capitals), but we've mitigated a major threat (Black Legion). That said, we're not close to a point where defeat is even a question. Could we be defeated? Certainly. No army is invincible. But I think the longer this war is waged, the more it favours the CFC.
Read more about the War in Fountain:
The War in Fountain - Battle For J5A-IX
The War in Fountain - What Are The Russians Doing For Us?
The War in Fountain - Fweddit Chooses a Side
The War in Fountain - Test Alliance Has a Bad Day
The War in Fountain - The Depth of Gameplay In Sovereignty Wars
War Poster - J5A-IX
The War in Fountain - The Importance of J5A-IX
The War in Fountain - Divide and Conquer
The War in Fountain - Gnrrr. History.
The War in Fountain - Cracking Down on Pornfleets
The War in Fountain - Blueballing
The War in Fountain - Old Montolio Had A Jump Bridge, EI-, EI-O0O
The War in Fountain - Hemorrhaging ISK
Source: The War in Fountain - Fish or Cut Bait